Sakura Watch, April 23, 2019 - Third stage begins, and I predict the peak bloom

Sakura Watch, April 23, 2019 - Third stage begins, and I predict the peak bloom are the key highlights of today’s update. When I first arrived at High Park, I could clearly see the cherry blossom trees were dotted with bright green buds. Once I to a closer look, I was pleased to have seen the buds had moved into the third stage of development.

Watch the latest Youtube video update below:

Third Development Stage

Toronto had finally had a good round of actual spring-like weather, with warm temperatures into the teens, and bright sunny days. These ideal conditions have helped the trees to move into the next stage of development. The blossom buds will appear to have swelled in size and take on a more bulbous shape. Within the small openings, the tips of the florets also become visible, as they slowly get ready to come out of their protective home.

These close-up photos show the buds in great detail, and you can see the florets beginning to show. It was raining throughout my visit, which is why you can see water droplets and wet branches. Though I think the video captures it a bit better, there is a serene beauty in seeing the vibrant buds dripping from the rain.

My first official prediction

After seeing the progress in the park, and noting the upcoming weather forecasts for the next couple of weeks, I can now offer some more accurate dates with a good level of confidence on the observations to date. Once the blossom buds hit this third stage of development, it can take between 10-15 days to see a peak bloom. Weather is the crucial factor now and seeing the 14-day forecast on The Weather Network website, the milder temperatures and brief bouts of rain will likely push the dates towards the earlier to mid dates within the 15 day range.

Source: Screenshot of the 14-Day Forecast overview for High Park-Swansea // courtesy of The Weather Network website.

This leads me to predict that the first cherry blossoms will begin to bloom in early May, with a peak bloom (70% of blossoms opened) to occur between May 7-12. This is almost a repeat of the blooms times from 2018, but my next visit later this week will help to confirm or adjust those dates.

Thanks for stopping by, and as always, watch for more updates soon!